A brilliant training performance by the Bewleys and surely a contender for the ride of the week from our stable jockey Jonathan Bewley at Hexham today to make it four wins from four runs at Hexham in the last four months. I am sure our club horse who we own in partnership with the Bewleys believes he really is the man around this stiff Hexham track as he again led from the start and galloped all contenders into the ground over this testing three mile trip winning by a cosy two lengths at 8/1. An amazing performance from our club horse who has done nothing but improve and thrive in the Bewleys borders stable having started the season with a rating of only 84. There is no doubt the horse just loves Hexham.................and so do we! Martin
At this time of year we have some really good publications to read through including Mark Howards One Jump Ahead, Declan Phelan's ptp notes, the John Morris publication Jumping Prospects and a whole raft of jumps trainer stable reports, open day video's etc. All the top yards do them now and they are fascinating reading and watching. These information resources are nearly all to some extent complimentary or at least hopefull about their stable horses prospects for the season ahead and on occasions wax lyrical about their latest 17 hands ex Colin Bowe ptp winner who cost 80k or their latest French recruit who won an AQPS race and someone (down south, in Cheshire or north of Perth usually) splashed out 120k. Usually not the trainer's cash mind! I have ordered and read all these publications for the last 35 years (and still do) or at least whatever similar publication was around at that time in the bad old days before the internet. (Before the internet I felt like I was partially blind due to a total lack of meaningful information and I was ha) the few books available in those days being courtesy of W H Smiths. Publications like Marten Julians 'Dark Horses to Follow' or the Timeform 'Black Book' or if you were poor like me 'Superform' with a weekly posting of the last weeks form pages which went into a loose leaf lace up plastic wallet lol.............. that was about it in those days. These were and still are really good reads and in my opinion offer good value for money. The big problem is that anyone who is serious about their jumps racing (professional or dedicated punters and odds compilers) also read exactly the same publications and web based materials, therefore we all end up identifying the same horses to follow. The horses that 'throb' on the pages and in the various trainers reports are immediately elevated to potential superstar status. Perhaps you believe you are the only one making that dark list to follow when looking through the index at the back of the book to spot the ones in bold type...............not true, those people who are 'in the know' have also identified the very same horses and are watching and wating for them to run just like you and me. The odds compilers in particular are usually very much on the ball with most or all of these 'ones to note'. So what is your point Martin? Well the truth is around 70% of these noted horses turn out either average or worse, then conversly some of the lesser lights in the stable turn out unexpectedly very good or at least a lot better than expected. When the 'talking horses' first run they are always priced up by the odds compilers far too short and then they are still heavily backed by punters who think they have spotted one that most others have missed and at 9/4 it is a great value bet. The truth is that the punters are usually betting at odds that are far too short and whilst 25% of these horses may run a good race and some will win and go on to be decent or even superstars the majority don't. The end result over the season is a large betting loss for those punters.....................the punters who all followed the rest of the racing community hype and the big market mover like sheep............baaaaaaaaaaaaaa. If you were to wait until December and then ask the same trainers again about the expensive purchase 'ones to note' the excuses begin to flow......bit of a leg, might benefit from a wind op, has lost condition, has not acclimatised, backward and needs more time, will be ok once handicapped etc. ....all the usual stuff we have heard time and time again and often we truly believe it, because sometimes it is true..........the trainers survive on these well rehearsed throw away 'one liner excuses' that they have repeated over and over in various forms to owners over the years who mostly buy into what is being said as they don't really have any choice. In the meantime the bills are being paid by the owners who go to bed dreaming of another day in the future, because we all like to dream! So what is the answer..............well I think we should never be afraid to make our own original assessment of a horses prospects.........which means its breeding first and foremost, its looks (price paid often gives a clue here) and then its fitness and appearance at the races and then its actual form. By doing original research work you are stripping out all the hype.........which you should keep in mind because I can assure you that the time when you make the biggest profit will be when you are betting against one of these talking horses that everyone else is backing.........that is the real opportunity to make decent money betting but how many are brave and clever enough to take a contrary view? Martin ps Lets hope George does not bother to read this!
Looking forward to some jump racing again up north today and then Hexham on Friday. I am not a fan of jump racing on this good to firm ground mind so lets hope conditions are safe. MGR members advised of the one bet today at an early door price of 9/4. That horse is trading lower this morning so lets hope the market confidence is rewarded later. We could do with a little more rain at Hexham for Friday where Chicago Outfit is entered to run. Martin