I walked the Newcastle racecourse twice with my good friend Ian this morning and quite enjoyed it, except for the fact that the going was more good than the soft/heavy we hoped for. Even with some rain forecast in the morning it would not be enough to significantly change the going so after a chat with George the decision was made not to run. With most of the new jumps season ahead to look forward to we will now aim Romany Ryme for a 3 mile maiden hurdle race at Hexham on Wednesday 11th December. The MGR club members are looking forward to a great days racing on Fighting Fifth Hurdle day at Newcastle on Saturday and the mini bus and tables are booked which will probably mean a few sore heads on Sunday! I will start work on trying to find a few winners for everyone tomorrow lunchtime and I just hope I do as good a job as I did on our last club day out at Sedgefield. Martin
Our club horse is reported in good form at home and is full of himself and ready to race! I have just had a chat with the Newcastle clerk of the course and checked the weather forecast for the next couple of days and it is not going to plan. We want at least soft ground for Romany Ryme to run in the 2Mile 6 Furlong French Furze Hurdle on Saturday and at the moment that is very unlikely in which case we will not run. Our plan B will be an entry in a 3 mile maiden hurdle race at hexham on Wednesday the 11th December again as long as the ground is soft or heavy. A first for me yesterday was going to the races at Sedgefield to watch one race only the last race. This was a bumper race with several young horses running for the first time. I had my eye on three horses who had a bit about them on breeding and went along to see them in the flesh. I took a liking to a horse called Hitman Harry trained by Tina Jackson and had a bet Each Way at 28/1. The Hitman ran a great race and at one point I was confident he may win. Still a very good second place so no complaints. There and back in an hour and a half and I watched two races.
I would really love to see Our Joey win the first race at Haydock tomorrow in a tricky race I feel he has very good each way prospects at around 8/1. A couple of others are running tomorrow who I feel can improve on their first runs, Many Clouds won well for us at Carlisle and looked before the race like he would come on for the run. In a tricky four runner race tomorrow 2:30 at Haydock I feel at 9/2 betvictor he represents the value. The Emma Lavelle stable continues in good form and Closing Ceremony can go one better provided he can progress again from his last run. He is only a four year old and had a hard race last time out at Chepstow. Potters Cross is the danger so if you fancy the favourite then the forecast could be the bet. The rain continues to fall at Newcastle .........perfect! POST RACE NOTE: Our Joey ran a decent enough race finishing 4th without reaching the heights we know he is capable of. 4th however does not help with our each way bets! I was at Haydock and with the horse as he was saddled up and confess to being a little concerned at that point as the horse looked a little warm and on edge. There will be another day when he is spot on when his price will be bigger! Many Clouds ran a very good race finishing second to the in form Nicholls stable horse and his day will come also. To round off a poor afternoons betting the forecast bet finished 1st and 3rd so the bookies come out on top! What was I saying again in my previous post?
People who know me well know that I have been in this game a long time and because of that I have learnt a few lessons (some very hard) along the way. Although the betting to date this season has gone better than expected we need to BEWARE. This next period from mid November to the beginning of January is the graveyard period for punters backing national hunt horses. Don't ask me to rationally explain why, as it is a hard one to work out. What I know for sure however is that over this period of around six weeks finding the winners on a consistent basis becomes very difficult......impossible almost. This unusual pattern has been the same for many years and nothing has changed so why should it be different this year.....it won't be believe me. Why is it......well I have a few theories and you can point to how a lot of unexposed types become fitter from the smaller stables and start running well or how the racing gets more competitive with more runners as we reach a peak of horses in training over this period. In any event it all gets very difficult for the next six weeks or so. So BEWARE this is when the bookmakers make a killing and punters are often destroyed! What do I suggest we do then.......well in the main we back off the betting.......go quiet and wait and watch patiently......no silly bets......use the time to research and the watch the form lines develop that will help you later in the season. Over this period normal betting logic does not work out, so lets accept that and regroup in the new year. If we have a bet in the next six weeks it must be because we know some information or other factor which is out of the ordinary and in our favour. The only other criteria I would suggest that works over this period is sheer class! Cream always comes to the top, so if you know that the Henderson, Nicholls, Pipe or King stables have a real class act then the chances are they are going to perform on the big days. Sprinter Sacre being the obvious example.....unbeatable but no value for betting in my view. How many times has the PIPE stable produced the goods at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting in previous years? Probably four years out of five and they did it again this year at the Sunday meeting. Class tells at this time of year and not much else works out.......so BEWARE. Once the new year comes along things slowly improve and return to normal for punters and we will be back in business.....so be patient and it will pay off. We have had a bit of rain at Newcastle over the last 12 hours............lets hope we get a lot more next week and no frost on Saturday 30th November please! Martin
The Cheltenham meeting has very competitive races as usual and therefore I have been seeking out easier pickings elsewhere. Chase The Spud who won for us at 22/1 when the favourite fell last time out and is the favourite himself today in the first race at Uttoxeter. At a best priced 11/4 with Stan James I still think there is some value there and expect him to run well. In the last race at Wetherby I think Jokers and Rogues is an each way bet in the 'betting without the favourite' market at 17/2 with Betvictor. Especially if Forty Crowns runs a decent race for the John Wade yard earlier in the afternoon. I also think a small win double on the above two is in order. MGR club members have a few more tips to digest today also! POST RACE NOTE: One of those days with the SPUD finishing second and the John Wade stable runners just not performing at the moment.
It was great to see Rev Up Ruby win for the Bewley stable and owner connections today and after all their hard work they certainly deserved it. I would like to say that I backed the horse but I didn't as I thought there would be one or two in the race too good for Ruby.......how wrong I can be! Chuffed for the stable though and now with two seconds and a winner in the last week things are really looking up. Three Kingdoms who beat Kilbree Chief at Wetherby ran a cracker at Cheltenham today finishing 3rd to boost the form lines with Romany Ryme. As you know we need really soft or Heavy ground for our horse and the plan is to enter him in the 2m 6f French Furze Hurdle at Newcastle on Saturday the 30th November (A class 2 10k race) and also at Wetherby the week after in a 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle. I can report the horse is in fine fettle at home so lets hope we get lots of rain in the next two weeks. The MGR club members are all booked up for a great day out at Newcastle on fighting fifth day and what a day it would be if our horse could get his head in front in a class 2 race over hurdles.....if he could do that over hurdles what would that make him when he jumps a fence? Sweet Dreams!
I Have just spent an hour looking back over the first 5 weeks of the jumps season and reckoning up on how you would have done if you had followed my betting advices with a £40 win on anything under 5/1 and £20 each way on anything 5/1 and above. Where I have advised a double bet (only once) I have assumed half stakes at £20. In total you would have staked £960 and received a total return of £2252 leaving a profit to date of £1292 for 5 weeks of betting advices. Put another way your profit on all bets staked is 135%. Now I have always said I won't make you rich and don't give up the day job however I think you would agree that the above return is quite impressive and just for reading my blog! Of course I do not give all my betting advices out on my blog that I provide to MGR club members and of these other betting advices some have won and others lost with similar returns. Oh and I have not included the £1017 straight forecast return for a £5 stake I had on where I advised two horses in the same race as I did not make it clear in the blog that you should back the reverse forecast. This all means that if you had joined the MGR club with a 5% stake for your £80 per month it would have cost you nothing and you would have made a profit of over a thousand pounds! Often in life when something looks too good to be true it usually is. When this happens I always say there will be something wrong somewhere. It may be that in this case I could be wrong..........if you can find out where please tell me........ just drop me an email on the contacts page and let me know. Keep reading Martin's blog!
A great run from Romany Ryme today with a running on second place only beaten one and a half lengths to what connections think is a useful Lucinda Russell horse Kilbree Chief. The MGR club owners were thrilled with the run and if the ground had been softer we think a victory would have been likely. Still a good second place leaves us with plenty of options for future races over hurdles and don't forget this horse needs fences, 3miles and heavy ground to be seen at his best. Happy Days!
Well the ground is reported as soft but I am not sure how as not a lot of rain has fallen in the last few days and we could do with a few showers in the morning. Ideally we want heavy ground for our horse. Being optimistic as I am though lets hope he can run well and get in the place money and most important of all come home safe and sound. At Hexham tomorrow I do like a horse called Capital Venture in the 1:20 race who had a few training problems last season before running a tidy race when winning a hurdle race first time out this season. Capital Venture has CHASER written all over him and I expect him to bring home the bacon tomorrow! Looking forward to seeing Hexham in all its wintry and hopefully wet glory tomorrow..........proper racing!
Having decided to have Dark Caviars leg scanned last week the news was not good and as a result we have decided to be cautious with this young horse by looking after him and taking him out of training until next summer. It is a real shame as I know at home he was pleasing George and Jonathan and looking better than ever. I was really looking forward to seeing him running over hurdles through the rest of the season however that will have to wait until next jumps season now. We still think we have a nice young horse on our hands and patience is the name of the game at the moment. As a result I will not be accepting any new members into the Dark Caviar MGR club until he returns to training next year which is a setback for the club. The MGR members that are signed up are still enjoying some great days at the races and some amazing recent betting wins to.....long may it continue!