I walked the Newcastle racecourse twice with my good friend Ian this morning and quite enjoyed it, except for the fact that the going was more good than the soft/heavy we hoped for. Even with some rain forecast in the morning it would not be enough to significantly change the going so after a chat with George the decision was made not to run. With most of the new jumps season ahead to look forward to we will now aim Romany Ryme for a 3 mile maiden hurdle race at Hexham on Wednesday 11th December. The MGR club members are looking forward to a great days racing on Fighting Fifth Hurdle day at Newcastle on Saturday and the mini bus and tables are booked which will probably mean a few sore heads on Sunday! I will start work on trying to find a few winners for everyone tomorrow lunchtime and I just hope I do as good a job as I did on our last club day out at Sedgefield. Martin
Our club horse is reported in good form at home and is full of himself and ready to race! I have just had a chat with the Newcastle clerk of the course and checked the weather forecast for the next couple of days and it is not going to plan. We want at least soft ground for Romany Ryme to run in the 2Mile 6 Furlong French Furze Hurdle on Saturday and at the moment that is very unlikely in which case we will not run. Our plan B will be an entry in a 3 mile maiden hurdle race at hexham on Wednesday the 11th December again as long as the ground is soft or heavy. A first for me yesterday was going to the races at Sedgefield to watch one race only the last race. This was a bumper race with several young horses running for the first time. I had my eye on three horses who had a bit about them on breeding and went along to see them in the flesh. I took a liking to a horse called Hitman Harry trained by Tina Jackson and had a bet Each Way at 28/1. The Hitman ran a great race and at one point I was confident he may win. Still a very good second place so no complaints. There and back in an hour and a half and I watched two races.
People who know me well know that I have been in this game a long time and because of that I have learnt a few lessons (some very hard) along the way. Although the betting to date this season has gone better than expected we need to BEWARE. This next period from mid November to the beginning of January is the graveyard period for punters backing national hunt horses. Don't ask me to rationally explain why, as it is a hard one to work out. What I know for sure however is that over this period of around six weeks finding the winners on a consistent basis becomes very difficult......impossible almost. This unusual pattern has been the same for many years and nothing has changed so why should it be different this year.....it won't be believe me. Why is it......well I have a few theories and you can point to how a lot of unexposed types become fitter from the smaller stables and start running well or how the racing gets more competitive with more runners as we reach a peak of horses in training over this period. In any event it all gets very difficult for the next six weeks or so. So BEWARE this is when the bookmakers make a killing and punters are often destroyed! What do I suggest we do then.......well in the main we back off the betting.......go quiet and wait and watch patiently......no silly bets......use the time to research and the watch the form lines develop that will help you later in the season. Over this period normal betting logic does not work out, so lets accept that and regroup in the new year. If we have a bet in the next six weeks it must be because we know some information or other factor which is out of the ordinary and in our favour. The only other criteria I would suggest that works over this period is sheer class! Cream always comes to the top, so if you know that the Henderson, Nicholls, Pipe or King stables have a real class act then the chances are they are going to perform on the big days. Sprinter Sacre being the obvious example.....unbeatable but no value for betting in my view. How many times has the PIPE stable produced the goods at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting in previous years? Probably four years out of five and they did it again this year at the Sunday meeting. Class tells at this time of year and not much else works out.......so BEWARE. Once the new year comes along things slowly improve and return to normal for punters and we will be back in business.....so be patient and it will pay off. We have had a bit of rain at Newcastle over the last 12 hours............lets hope we get a lot more next week and no frost on Saturday 30th November please! Martin
The Cheltenham meeting has very competitive races as usual and therefore I have been seeking out easier pickings elsewhere. Chase The Spud who won for us at 22/1 when the favourite fell last time out and is the favourite himself today in the first race at Uttoxeter. At a best priced 11/4 with Stan James I still think there is some value there and expect him to run well. In the last race at Wetherby I think Jokers and Rogues is an each way bet in the 'betting without the favourite' market at 17/2 with Betvictor. Especially if Forty Crowns runs a decent race for the John Wade yard earlier in the afternoon. I also think a small win double on the above two is in order. MGR club members have a few more tips to digest today also! POST RACE NOTE: One of those days with the SPUD finishing second and the John Wade stable runners just not performing at the moment.
It was great to see Rev Up Ruby win for the Bewley stable and owner connections today and after all their hard work they certainly deserved it. I would like to say that I backed the horse but I didn't as I thought there would be one or two in the race too good for Ruby.......how wrong I can be! Chuffed for the stable though and now with two seconds and a winner in the last week things are really looking up. Three Kingdoms who beat Kilbree Chief at Wetherby ran a cracker at Cheltenham today finishing 3rd to boost the form lines with Romany Ryme. As you know we need really soft or Heavy ground for our horse and the plan is to enter him in the 2m 6f French Furze Hurdle at Newcastle on Saturday the 30th November (A class 2 10k race) and also at Wetherby the week after in a 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle. I can report the horse is in fine fettle at home so lets hope we get lots of rain in the next two weeks. The MGR club members are all booked up for a great day out at Newcastle on fighting fifth day and what a day it would be if our horse could get his head in front in a class 2 race over hurdles.....if he could do that over hurdles what would that make him when he jumps a fence? Sweet Dreams!
I Have just spent an hour looking back over the first 5 weeks of the jumps season and reckoning up on how you would have done if you had followed my betting advices with a £40 win on anything under 5/1 and £20 each way on anything 5/1 and above. Where I have advised a double bet (only once) I have assumed half stakes at £20. In total you would have staked £960 and received a total return of £2252 leaving a profit to date of £1292 for 5 weeks of betting advices. Put another way your profit on all bets staked is 135%. Now I have always said I won't make you rich and don't give up the day job however I think you would agree that the above return is quite impressive and just for reading my blog! Of course I do not give all my betting advices out on my blog that I provide to MGR club members and of these other betting advices some have won and others lost with similar returns. Oh and I have not included the £1017 straight forecast return for a £5 stake I had on where I advised two horses in the same race as I did not make it clear in the blog that you should back the reverse forecast. This all means that if you had joined the MGR club with a 5% stake for your £80 per month it would have cost you nothing and you would have made a profit of over a thousand pounds! Often in life when something looks too good to be true it usually is. When this happens I always say there will be something wrong somewhere. It may be that in this case I could be wrong..........if you can find out where please tell me........ just drop me an email on the contacts page and let me know. Keep reading Martin's blog!
A great run from Romany Ryme today with a running on second place only beaten one and a half lengths to what connections think is a useful Lucinda Russell horse Kilbree Chief. The MGR club owners were thrilled with the run and if the ground had been softer we think a victory would have been likely. Still a good second place leaves us with plenty of options for future races over hurdles and don't forget this horse needs fences, 3miles and heavy ground to be seen at his best. Happy Days!
Well the ground is reported as soft but I am not sure how as not a lot of rain has fallen in the last few days and we could do with a few showers in the morning. Ideally we want heavy ground for our horse. Being optimistic as I am though lets hope he can run well and get in the place money and most important of all come home safe and sound. At Hexham tomorrow I do like a horse called Capital Venture in the 1:20 race who had a few training problems last season before running a tidy race when winning a hurdle race first time out this season. Capital Venture has CHASER written all over him and I expect him to bring home the bacon tomorrow! Looking forward to seeing Hexham in all its wintry and hopefully wet glory tomorrow..........proper racing!
I like Many Clouds in the 1:30 at Carlisle today and even though the price of 5/2 is a little short this horse is a class act and may take a bit of beating if putting in a clear round of jumping first time over fences. He will like the heavy ground. Innis Shannon in 4:15pm at Carlisle we know to be a nice mare however until we see some signs of the stables runners in the winners enclosure then caution is advised.The heavy ground should be fine. The value bets of the day are in the 2:55 at Huntingdon where Yabadabadoo at 10/1 and Chase The Spud at 22/1 are both lively contenders. If you think the 1/2 favourite will win then cover yourself by doing a straight forecast with the above two to be second to the favourite. Good luck! POST RACE NOTE: Many Clouds won impressively and I had the 3/1 available last night. Innis Shannon didn't settle early on which cost her at the business end of the race and she ran ok finishing 3rd. The Bewley stable is not firing at the moment and is on a long cold run. The main bets of the day Chase The Spud 22/1 and Yabadabadoo 10/1 came home first and second at big prices with the favourite falling when going well at the third from last. Another great betting day for MGR club members!
Apart from the first two in the market this race looks to have a lot of average horses running. The aim therefore is to look for some each way value in the 'Without The Favourite' market so we get paid on the 4th place if the Favourite Apollo Eleven wins or is placed. The one I like is REDPENDER and at around 7/1 w/o the fav as this one represents a bit of value today. Good Luck! POST RACE NOTE: Redpender wins easily for another winning day........hope you were on like the other MGR club members!