Looking forward to tomorrows day out and taking advantage of being able to take a good look at the fitness of the first time out horses in the pre parade ring. If we are going to back a winner or two we need to ensure we take a good look at those horses with the ability to win to see just how fit they look before deciding to have a bet. Tomorrow we have a group of friends and guests having lunch in the pavilion 5 suite. I am working through the form, trainers and breeding lines etc now to make sure we are well prepared!
The MGR club is hosting a club race day this Thurdsday at Sedgefield where some of our club members and a few guests will be enjoying what looks likely to be a good race card attracting decent race entry numbers due to the forecast soft ground. I will be preparing some pre race betting advice notes on the races of interest for guests that day and I hope we all enjoy a really good day out with a winner or two to add to the enjoyment. Guests should plan to arrive for around mid day as we have some lunch to get through with the first race due off at 1:00pm. We are located in the Pavillion 5 Suite overlooking the racecourse. Dress code is just smart casual for the day so come along wearing something comfortable and warm. The not so good news is that our club horse Dark Caviar which was entered in the last race has knocked a leg at home and whilst he may have come right later this week we have wisely decided to give him some time to recover. He is a promising young horse and we intend to look after him particularly at this early stage in his racing career. Looking forward to seeing everyone on Thursday!
Wincanton 3:30 A fixed odds straight forecast bet with Bet365 is the order of the day for a bit of value. Vicente 1st Minellaforleisure 2nd The odds for this bet are just over 7/1 with Bet 365 for the fixed odds straight forecast (first and second in the correct order). This represents a bit of value in my view. Yes the Hobbs runner is a danger however Toowoomba is much more of a staying chaser type and the expensive purchase Minellaforleisure may have too much toe for him in this 2 mile race. Post Race Note: Well I made a right good job of picking the horse to be second to the 1/3 favourite! Minellaforleisure won easily and was widely available at 18/1 this morning. No use whatsoever to us with our straight forecast bet mind. The 1/3 favourite unseated the jockey before the start then remounted but never looked settled. The favourite horse was touted by Anthony Bromley as his best buy of the season which together with the Nichols profile explained the short price. Not quite the result I was hoping for however at least I was on the right track.
I've had a good look at todays racing and have decided that there is a lot of complicated races to figure out which are very difficult to find the winners in.........except one race which I think is much more straight forward to work through and has been the focus of my research. In the 1:50 race at Chepstow we have a nice straight forward 3m maiden hurdle with 8 declared runners (perfect for an each way bet) on really soft ground.........we do not want any non runners though! The odds on favourite Kaki De La Pree ran a good race last time out at Fontwell finishing second, however Chepstow on this ground is a different ball game. This horse was bought out of the Henderson stable at the May Doncaster sales for only £15k after costing Michael Buckley £120k in December 2011.......why was he sold? Has he had training or leg problems perhaps and could the wheels come off today......possibly, so lets take him on! I have looked at all the runners carefully and the only two I like in the race are Closing Ceremony and Doing Fine with the rest a moderate bunch. Looking at their bumper runs of the two Closing Ceremony looks the more robust staying type who should be suited by todays conditions. These horses are both jumping hurdles today for the first time which is a risk however if they had already won a hurdle race they would not be running. The Emma Lavelle horses are running well this year and this ones last run last March was when the stable was out of form making the third place finish even more impressive. Of the two I like my preference is for CLOSING CEREMONY Each Way at the 9/2 or 5/1 price available. Provided the horse jumps ok I cannot see it being out of the first three, therefore in my view this a low risk bet today as we get our money back if placed. Pile on and good luck! Post Race Note: Closing Ceremony ran a very good race just getting beat the 2 lengths by the favourite. If his jumping had been a bit more fluent he would have been right there. Connections will be pleased with his run and I think he is a horse with a promising future. Doing fine ran ok finishing 3rd but in my view does not have the same scope for improvement as Closing Ceremony. With our money returned no complaints from me!
I hope a few of you followed yesterdays blog advice with the O'neil horse winning and Rocking Blues running a very good race in second at the EW 9/1. I know a couple of my sons friends had the forecast so well done. Our horse Romany Ryme managed to finish 4th some distance off the principles and whilst he ran well enough until the home straight his jumping fell apart down the back straight and he did not finish his race as well as we would have liked on ground which was not ideal for him. We think the horse is feeling an old back injury which we were aware about when we bought him and that is the reason why after jumping so well during the first half of the race that his jumping went astray when he kept trying to put short ones in through feeling his back. We will see how he has come out of the race today and have the back looked at to see what can be done. I did however learn something about betting markets through this race yesterday and that is how can a horse with no stable or owners money behind it, running on ground not ideal, who needed the run find itself heavily backed from 9/1 to 11/2 before the off.......very strange! Through being at Carlisle yesterday I had it in mind to view the last race bumper runners and had a short list of well bred types to look at, as always I really like to see for myself how fit these young horses look before deciding on a bet or not. One horse stood out for me on looks and fitness yesterday and after a steady gallop from the pre parade ring to the bookmakers I managed to get on FIVE IN A ROW each way at the 12/1. When the price had reached 6/1 before the off I thought the race may get interesting and the horse duly obliged by 9 lengths, my voice is a little hoarse this morning! Fakenham on today and not one of my favourite courses so I will have a quick look before turning my attentions to the weekends runners later today.
We are running in the 3:55pm at Carlisle tomorrow and whilst we are hoping for a decent run and something to build upon for the future the ground is not in our favour tomorrow and Romany will definately come on for the run. Romany needs really soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best, so to see us marked up as the second favourite in the race is a bit of a surprise to us! Better value in the race is available with Rocking blues at the 9/1 each way as this is a decent horse who has suffered from training problems in the past and is best caught fresh first time out. If he stands up to the racing and runs to form then he and the O'neil horse the favourite should be the ones in the shake up tomorrow.
We have both Romany Ryme and Dark Caviar entered up for races at Carlisle on Thursday and looking at the advance race entries there are certainly plenty of runners entered in all the races we are taking a look at. Several of the top trainers from around the country are also represented, the predicted soft ground bringing out the better horses. We will see how the ground goes through the week and of course we have other options at Sedgefield on Thursday 31st October where hopefully the numbers of entries will not be as high.
Not many of these runners will relish the rain softened ground but one that will is Be Definite and at 14/1 is an EW bet for me today in this race. Post Race Note: Finished 4th running a decent race however we miss out on the place money again......story of the weekend really.
Some good jumps racing today and very competitive racing at Cheltenham where the big fields and good ground will ensure fast run races which in my view makes finding the winners there very difficult today. In the 4:25 race at Cheltenham I do like the two horses Silver Eagle at 6/1 and Mickie at 9/1 and I think these horses will be worth following but NOT a bet for me today. Kelso today is much more interesting and in the first race don't be surprised if the Donald McCain hot favourite were to get turned over as I like a few of the others especially Frankies Promise who at 7/2 is worth a go. I think Spitz may be a danger today and would not put you off this one either if you fancied the horse at a 9/1 price each way. Frankies Promise is the one for me though. Also at Kelso I have taken on another hot favourite and backed Gold Futures EW in the 1:45 race at 11/2. This horse is from a good stable who know how to win their races around Kelso and the horse is well regarded. I know I am taking a couple of short priced favourites on in the above races but VALUE is the name of the game and by backing the horses EW it keeps us in the game even if the favourites were to come good. At Kelso in the 4:35 race I think Mister D is an each way bet WITHOUT THE FAVOURITE at the 9/1 available from Betvictor. We just don't want the ground too soft for this one so lets hope the rain stops. Good to Soft should be fine though. Best Of Luck .........especially any Fromthestables Forum members who find their way here! Post Race Notes: Frankies Promise fell early on and clearly has lots of schooling work to do. He jumped in this first time hurdles run as if he had never jumped a hurdle in his life! Probably the firmish ground at home has held up his schooling work which badly showed on the track. Spitz ran a tidy enough race to finish 3rd. Gold Futures sweated up and ran respectably enough finishing 4th only 3 lengths off the winner but out of the first three for our EW bet. Mister D ran a good race finishing 4th and as the Favourite was placed we win our Each Way bet so not a completely bad day. Silver Eagle finished 2nd heavily backed and only beaten 3/4 of a length whilst Mickie unseated his rider in the same race. I have had better days and worse!
Some proper jumping ground at last and the usual competitive races at Cheltenham. Interestingly there are a couple of runners who came out of Dark Caviars Perth bumper run so it would be good to see them run well to frank the form lines. There is a few interesting horses running tomorrow at Kelso and once I have teased through the form and noted the trainers comments on fitness, I will post up comments around 12:30 tomorrow on my blog. I will also be hosting a Martin Gray Racing Club race experience day at Sedgefield on Thursday 31st October to include reserved table seating and two course lunch for selected guests. If anyone is interested in finding out more about the MGR club then please give me a call or drop me an email. See the contacts page for further details. At this stage there is also the probability that Dark Caviar will run in the NHF race that day for added excitement!